Tailing MLB Winners and Losers

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Tailing MLB Winners and Losers


2007-07-31

With less than two months to go in the major league regular season, the balance of scheduling will focus more on playing teams within the division or against other top contenders in other divisions.

Divisional play tends to, as the saying goes “Separate the men from the boys.” Of course all games in respective divisions have a two for one consequence depending on who wins and losses, in head to head conflicts. Can bettors get an edge in these situations? The answer is ‘yes’ with a closer look at how mighty and meek certain teams have been all season.

One of baseball betting’s oldest axioms has been to “beat up on the bad teams and split with the good ones.” This made sense if you figure any team will play about 76 games against team’s over.500 and the balance against clubs below .500. If a team’s goal to start the year is to win 90 games, that would mean they would split facing the better teams at 38-38 and have a beat down on the poorer squads with 52-34 mark. Of course playing in all kinds of different division races from year to year changes the outcome, nonetheless is a good rule of thumb to follow. If a team were to say win 95-100 times during the season, they would likely have a better than average record facing teams with somewhat similar records. Conversely, bad teams would have less success against quality clubs and would be Play Against teams.

The National League has far more teams in contention for playoff spots, based in part to the mediocrity they have exhibited. Only two teams have winning records versus clubs with over .500 record. Atlanta is the best with 34-31 (+ 4.5 units) mark and the Los Angeles Dodgers are next at 34-33 (+ 0.25 units). All the rest of the teams in the senior circuit fall below the break even point. Most like Chicago, Philadelphia, New York, Arizona and San Diego are within four games of being .500. It is of note to see division leader Milwaukee 21-26 (-6.10 units), failing primarily on the road.

Here we find no real value at this time of playing on the better grade National League teams when they meet one another. However, we do find a number of teams to play against that are bankroll builders.

St. Louis 22-34 (-9.7 units)

Colorado 28-35 (-0.2)

Washington 26-45 (-1.6)

Pittsburgh 17-39 (-18.5)

San Francisco32-47 (-16.4)

It is apparent the Cardinals, Pirates and Giants are unlikely to get better any time soon when playing more formidable competition. The Nationals hold a certain amount of value, seeing them playing at .366 clip and are nearly even on the money line. The bigger question on Washington is being selective and patient enough to pounce at the right time.

In the American League we see a clear separation of a pair of teams with other contenders doing a fair job. The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim are beating up on comparable teams with 27-17 (+9 units) record. Boston also is serving up impressive numbers with 38-27 (+4.1) mark. It is interesting to note, the Angels have partaken in the fewest number of games of any team in major league baseball betting and that should change dramatically in the month of August, depending on what teams hovering around .500 perform when meeting the Halos.

Detroit’s recent slump has seen the Tigers fall back to 33-29 (+3.35 units) and AL Central partner Cleveland is right there also at 25-23 (+ 0.10). Seattle is slightly below average at 23-26 (+2 units) and the Yankees are 28-27, however are too large a favorite even against these competitive squads and are -11.4 units.

Looking to collect cash on losers that seem deemed for failure, look at this grouping.

Tampa Bay 25-39 (-5.1 units)

Oakland 23-31 (-6.4)

Chicago W.S 25-40 (-11.5)

Baltimore 24-40 (-12.50)

Texas 29-40 (-2.9)

The Orioles recent turnaround only means they are mildly improved against equally poor clubs. The White Sox and the Rangers have lucid weaknesses and can be expected to struggle. The Devils Rays and the Athletics are flawed and give no reason to presume anything other than losses to continue to mount facing those of better pedigree in 2007.

In conclusion, opportunities exist to exploit good and bad teams in the right situations facing the right teams. Don’t pass up a chance to inflate personal income at places like Sportsbook.com and others tailing the winners and losers.




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