MLB: Know your Numbers for Winning Wagers

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MLB: Know your Numbers for Winning Wagers


2008-06-09

When betting on sports, relying on instinct will dry up your money almost as fast as a trip to the gas pump. In order win at these games, you MUST know your numbers, because rest assured, those setting the lines certainly do. Sportsbook.com has many of the key numbers you need to take in on its profitable angles and team statistics pages, both updated daily.

If winning is really the goal, (for many, itís just the action) proper understanding must be used to protect and enhance bankroll. Having to deal with the ups and downs of sports betting can be an emotional challenge. When anyone is on a hot streak, most every wager makes sense, the lines look soft and the cash finds you, even when you sometimes donít deserve it and are more lucky than good. Other times, we have felt like weíd miss the water falling out of boat, not being able to pick a winner for prolonged period. In these situations, we often place undo stress on ourselves trying to chase wins, instead of putting the numbers in our favor.

In sports like baseball, the opportunity is their everyday to wager. Frequently, a bettor could have a 0-5 day and felt the immediate need to make good the very next day with 5-0 record. With very rare exception, does this ever occur and typically, a gambler that is pressing for a win comes up a loser. Instead, try a practical approach. If you start 0-5, think of it as the start of a week, no matter what the actual day of the week is. Donít chase, work harder to be back over .500 for a seven day period and in the black over the next six days. This alleviates the pressure of having to win now, and by the end of your ďweekĒ, you could have 10-8 record and up just a little, meaning you really accomplished something in the last six days, regaining the confidence to keep moving forward. Using this thought process can help you stay out of slumps, biding time until the next hot streak comes.

Another example of knowing numbers is what separates the good bettors from the ones who make the money. Every casual baseball bettor should know, Florida has been one of the best Totals plays most of the year. The sharp bettor is more in tune to the situation and has been riding the Marlins on their 14-0-2 OVER streak. This is useful information that builds wagering accounts swiftly.

Understanding the situation is key also. Despite being up over +15 units on betting baseball this season, I committed a fundamental mistake I wanted to share. Philadelphia has been really swinging the bats, scoring lots of runs and playing a number of games Over the total. On June 2, Phils starter Kyle Kendrick, despite a descent win/loss record, has an ERA of almost five and was facing Cincinnatiís Bronson Arroyo, who has an earned run average in the 5.50 range. The Reds, though less consistent on offense, had been scoring runs at a good rate and considering their bullpen is below average, believed the play was Over 10.5. When I later saw the final score totaled just nine runs, I realized I had left one very important piece of the puzzle out of my decision, which I actually knew about. Philadelphia has the best bullpen in baseball and after Kendrick had pitched about as expected in allowing four runs in 5 1/3 innings, the Phillies pen slammed the door the last 3 2/3 and never permitted a run. Knowing the numbers matters.

Even though itís not until next Sunday, keep this figure in mind. Home teams playing on Sundayís are 104-48, a 68.4 winning percentage and even more profitable and astounding 57-17, 77 percent, since the first Sunday in May. Being prepared to do battle with the books can give you a huge edge, if you know your numbers.


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