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Internet baseball betting

Welcome to internetbaseballbetting.com, the site created to provide baseball bettors with all of the necessary information to make a profit during the baseball season.

Whether you need information on an injured player or a teams record versus right-handed starters, it is important to check this site daily to have a competitive edge over the house.


Internet baseball betting

March Madness Bracket
2015-02-15

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2013-01-30




MLB Handicapping Study – Divisional Dogs
2010-07-14

I had a conversation last week with a FoxSheets subscriber who claimed to have consistent success in betting baseball by following just a short list of fundamental concepts and strategies. While some of them were FoxSheets info-related in terms of systems and power ratings, etc, one of them was much more straight forward and it involved simply looking for value-laden underdogs in divisional games. Of course this piqued my curiosity, and to scratch that itch, I went back and did a study analyzing the performance of divisional dogs over the last decade.

One of the most fundamental beliefs in anyone who puts more weight in divisional games is that there is a familiarity that decreases the theoretical talent margin between two teams. They face each other so many times each season that they are well-versed in the strengths and weaknesses of each player and thus the opponent as a whole. Realistically, the oddsmaker doesn’t take this into account as much, since they are typically building their lines from a more universal set of power ratings that doesn’t recognize situational factors such as divisional play. Obviously the underlying thought is that this disconnect should lend value to anyone who believes in the power of the rivalry.

So, having theoretically been convinced that there was some merit to this divisional underdog theory, I set out to find out the actual results. I took all of the divisional games played in Major League Baseball between 2000 and this past Sunday (July 11th) and tabulated the wins, losses, and betting units won had a bettor backed every divisional dog in that time frame. The results are below.

<b>Divisional Road Underdogs in MLB by Season (2000-2010)</b>

<b>Season: W-L (PCT), UNITS</b>

<b>2000: </b>224-293 (43.3%), +24.4 Units

<b>2001: </b>284-376 (43.0%), +8.2 Units

<b>2002: </b>251-417 (37.6%), -57 Units

<b>2003: </b>265-404 (39.6%), -2.5 Units

<b>2004: </b>283-403 (41.3%), +4.9 Units

<b>2005: </b>318-400 (44.3%), +43.9 Units

<b>2006: </b>301-411 (42.3%), +2.1 Units

<b>2007: </b>306-377 (44.8%), +53.4 Units

<b>2008: </b>308-406 (43.1%), +22.1 Units

<b>2009: </b>270-421 (39.1%), -39.6 Units

<b>2010: </b>134-187 (41.7%), +1.4 Units

<b>TOTAL: </b>2944-4095 (41.8%), +61.3 Units

Average Road Underdog Line: -158

Average Return on Investment = 0.9%

As you can see, the divisional road underdog has been generally successful, producing 61.3 units of profit over the last decade-plus, with a R.O.I. of about 0.9%. Now, that isn’t enough to really wow a systems handicapper, but it does suggest that the strategy of backing road divisional dogs will at least keep the average joe in the fight against the oddsmakers. One important thing to note from the season-by-season results is that in only three of the 11 seasons has the road divisional dog netted a loss. So it can be said that the results of 2002 & 2009 in particular skew the numbers of what would be an otherwise more solid theory.

<b>Divisional Home Underdogs in MLB by Season (2000-2010)</b>

<b>Season: W-L (PCT), UNITS</b>

<b>2000: </b>127-112 (53.1%), +49.5 Units

<b>2001: </b>157-215 (42.2%), -22.4 Units

<b>2002: </b>156-210 (42.6%), -4.2 Units

<b>2003: </b>171-199 (46.2%), +25.6 Units

<b>2004: </b>150-187 (44.5%), +11 Units

<b>2005: </b>133-185 (41.8%), -14.9 Units

<b>2006: </b>162-187 (46.4%), +15.3 Units

<b>2007: </b>152-184 (45.2%), +0.8 Units

<b>2008: </b>147-160 (47.9%), +12.2 Units

<b>2009: </b>143-184 (43.7%), -14.4 Units

<b>2010: </b>74-77 (49.0%), +13.3 Units

<b>TOTAL: </b>1572-1900 (45.3%), +71.8 Units

Average Home Underdog Line: +129

Average Return on Investment = 2.1%

The divisional home underdog has proven over doubly effective than those on the road in terms of R.O.I., producing about 2.1% over the last 11 seasons, with a net profit of 71.8 units. Again, only four seasons netted a loss during that time span, with 2002 & 2009 again being part of the group. It is interesting to see that divisional home dogs up through the all-star break in 2010 have won 49% of their games, the highest winning percentage since 2000, with a R.O.I. of 8.8%.

<b>Divisional Road Underdogs in MLB by Line Range (2000-2010)</b>

<b>HOME LINE: W-L (PCT), UNITS</b>

<b>-300 or higher: </b>24-66 (26.7%), +5.7 Units

<b>-250 to -299: </b>58-148 (28.2%), -9.6 Units

<b>-220 to -249: </b>143-252 (36.2%), +47.8 Units

<b>-190 to -219: </b>236-410 (36.5%), +25.7 Units

<b>-170 to -189: </b>305-501 (37.8%), +4.4 Units

<b>-150 to -169: </b>529-801 (39.8%), -25.7 Units

<b>-130 to -149: </b>786-973 (44.7%), +29.2 Units

<b>-116 to -129: </b>435-477 (47.7%), +12.5 Units

<b>-106 to -115: </b>428-467 (47.8%), -28.7 Units

<b>TOTAL: </b>2944-4095 (41.8%), +61.3 Units

As you can see, there are some distinct breaks in success rates by divisional road dogs when you consider the line range in which they are playing too. There is a so-called “sweet spot” when the home team is favored in the -190 to -249 range. In these games since 2000, the road divisional dog has only won about 36.4% of its games, but has produced 73.5 units of profit. That equates to a R.O.I. of 7.1%. Now that type of return is something that mutual fund managers would kill for nowadays. If only us bettors had dropped our 401K money into this option rather than on Wall Street!

<b>Divisional Home Underdogs in MLB by Line Range (2000-2010)</b>

<b>HOME LINE: W-L (PCT), UNITS</b>

<b>+105 to -104: </b>440-456 (49.1%), -5.2 Units

<b>+106 to +120: </b>456-480 (48.7%), +40.8 Units

<b>+121 to +154: </b>475-585 (44.8%), +54.7 Units

<b>+155 to +199: </b>167-289 (36.6%), -6.2 Units

<b>+200 or higher: </b>34-90 (27.4%), -12.3 Units

<b>TOTAL: </b>1572-1900 (45.3%), +71.8 Units

The break in line range performance by home divisional dogs is very transparent. Those playing in the +106 to +154 range have been a solid investment over the last decade-plus, going 931-1065 for +95.5 units of profit. Compare that to the home divisional dogs in every other range that have netted -23.7 units of loss. Considering that 1,996 games have produced 4.8% R.O.I. over the 11-year span, bettors have a strategy in front of them that has produced both handsomely and consistently. At an average of 190 games per season, bettors can expect to have an opportunity to take advantage about once a night during the baseball season.

<b>Summary</b>

The results of the divisional dogs study are encouraging as it doesn’t take a whole lot of digging to come up with plays that should produce profits over the long haul, assuming of course that proper money management techniques are held to. Of course, this study was conducted using dime lines as the basis, and bettors paying higher vig than that is just cheating themselves. I would have no problem recommending the divisional dog strategy as a basis for beginning your baseball handicapping each day. When you spice in bullpen analysis, systems, and other key strength indicators, you should have all you need to build a nice bankroll each summer.


MLB: A Little MLB Trendy Talk
2010-06-02

Because the sport of baseball is played on daily basis, all teams have streaks, some are good and others are not. For this Hump Day, we’ll focus on four teams that couldn’t knockout their own shadow, let alone defeat the team in the other dugout the way they are playing. Is today the day these derided derelicts of the diamond stand up and fight over adversity? Probably not.

Arizona at L.A. Dodgers 3:10 E

Anytime you are 0 for anything, chances are life isn’t going so well. The Arizona Diamondbacks (20-33, -12.9 units) left the unfriendly borders of home on May 24 and haven’t won a game since, losing the first eight encounters of the road trip and a total of nine overall. The D-Backs offense tends to run like a microwave, or or off, unfortunately manager A.J. Hench just can’t press a button for start. The Snakes have averaged 2.1 runs per game in this stretch which places them in tough spots and they have lost last three contests in opponents final at bat.

Arizona is 3-12 after three or more consecutive losses this season and 8-22 with an on-base percentage of .285 or worse over their last five games and today’s get-away game in Los Angeles (30-22, +2.2) has added meaning for D-Backs players. Arizona is a +134 underdog at Sportsbook.com against the Dodgers, who have taken the first two games of the series and are 13-32 in road tilts with double revenge. It will be Edwin Jackson (3-6, 6.03 ERA) for the Snakes against rookie Carlos Monasterios (2-0, 2.20) and L.A. is only 15-1 off three straight wins vs. division rivals over the last two seasons.

Chic. Cubs at Pittsburgh 7:05 E

In Chicago there has been a lot of talk about how lifeless the Cubs (24-29, -13 units) have played all season. This is a stunning development to Cubs fans who figured that Lou Piniella would throwing players out of the clubhouse and turning over tables and chewing on umpires’ ears on a daily basis with his team’s nonchalant attitude on the field. Instead, Piniella has acted like an older employee taken over by new ownership and just wants to keep quiet until his full pension kicks in.

It doesn’t help the middle of the Cubs lineup resembles the recent Guatemalan sinkhole, with Derek Lee batting .232 and Aramis Ramirez (.167) needs a three week hitting streak just to climb to Mendoza Line.

Forget all that and somebody explain why the Cubs 1-7 against Pittsburgh (22-31, +4.0) in 2010 and have lost 10 of 11 to the Pirates. With Pittsburgh a National League worst -128 in run differential, it would seem logical the Bucs are going to win a few one run games and get clobbered the rest of the time, however for the Cubs, it seems the worse a team is, the more awful they play. Chicago has these dubious angles riding, they are 2-11 vs. NL teams scoring 3.8 or less runs a game on the season and 2-8 in road contests if teams in their own league allows 5.3 or more runs per outing.

The Cubs turn to Carlos Zambrano of all people for the start and they are -135 favorites and oh by the way, are 1-7 revenging a loss vs. opponent as a road favorite this season. One other note, Pittsburgh is 10-2 at home after a one run victory.

Baltimore at N.Y. Yankees 7:05 E

It cannot be very fun to go to work every day as a Baltimore Orioles player. Your teams stinks with 15-37 record (-17.4) and the division you play in has four of the five teams with the best record in the American League as June starts moving forward.

Baltimore actually held the New York Yankees (32-20, +2.8) to three runs last night, but tallied just one themselves. The O’s are 3-19 after scoring two runs or less this year and alarming 1-17 in road games after scoring one or fewer runs in a loss to an AL East rival since 2008. Even when the Birds get a good pitched game, they are 6-27 as visitors after scoring and allowing three runs or less.

It’s little wonder why Baltimore is a +260 underdog in the Bronx having to face Phil Hughes (6-1, 2.70), whose been New York’s best and most consistent pitcher this season. The Yankees are scoring 6.6 runs per game in the pinstripes and are 16-1 in home conflicts after allowing one run or less.

Cleveland at Detroit 7:05 E

The Tigers (26-25, +0.4) have lost eight of 10 with a balky offense not firing regularly. In Detroit’s previous defeats, they have scored 2.3 runs per game, compared to 4.4 in the season. Manager Jim Leyland has considered having the public address system at Comerica Park play Motley Crue’s “Kick start my heart” every time his team comes to bat since all aspects of the pitching have been solid and fielding on good ground, yet they are only 12-19 after four straight games where they committed no errors.

Detroit managed only two runs against Jake Westbrook and Cleveland in 3-2 loss on Tuesday and gives the ball to Armando Galarraga (1-1, 4.50), who makes his third start of the season and first since May 22.

Though it’s nice to see Galarraga has worked hard to return to the big leagues after beginning the season in the minors, he still has a poor track record with 4-14 record in night games since last year. (Tigers Record) With Cleveland in the throes of a terrible season at 19-31, Detroit at -142 money line wager at online sports betting outlets sounds like a descent wager, yet they are 8-15 vs. teams outscored by one or more runs a contest on the season.

Will the Tigers be able to overcome 4-12 record with Galarraga as starting pitcher against losing team and instead move to 13-1 at Comerica off a loss to a division rival as a home favorite? Stay tuned.